Scenario planning for development: a view from 2030

A workshop session during the DSA/BOND Stakeholder Conference on the Research / Practice Interfact at The School of Oriental and African Studies, London

Convenor: Richard O'Brien, Partner at Outsights

In this workshop, Outsights, a consultancy company that specialises in scenario building as a strategic planning tool, will present a number of scenarios for the future of the very poorest, seen from the world as it might look in 2030. Participants will discuss what these scenarios might mean for the work of researchers and practitioners.

More than 1 billion people are currently extremely poor and around half of these are likely to remain poor all of their lives and transfer their poverty status to their children. To provide a greater focus on the needs of those who are least likely to benefit from any development gains Outsights has developed, with the help of an international multi-stakeholder group, a set of scenarios for the future of the world's very poorest. The project was sponsored by the Department for International Development (DFID). Assisting in the project was the Chronic Poverty Research Centre, a consortium of North and South research institutions based at the University of Manchester.

Scenario-building has become a key tool in the modern corporate, government and organisational toolbox, and Outsights is a leading practitioner of this methodology, combining strong process skills with novel content. Scenario building is an interesting way of stimulating new thinking and facilitating practioners, researchers and policy makers to engage around complex issues.

Richard O'Brien is an economist by training, and spent 21 years in international banking, with Rothschilds and then as chief economist and executive director of American Express Bank. He is widely published, including his best-selling book Global Financial Integration: The End of Geography, and is co-editor of more than a dozen books.

A former contributor and advisor to leading international bodies such as the World Bank and OECD, Richard is particularly experienced in finding and presenting critical external insights, and in helping clients to understand their significance in company performance. Richard serves on a number of public and private sector governing councils and advisory boards. Since 2000 he has chaired the jury for the highly popular global writing competition run by The Economist and Shell International.